By: George Noga
More Liberty, Less Government
The Coming Inevitable Breakup of China; You Read it Here First
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“Categorically calling man-made global warming entirely fraudulent in 2007 was the mother of all fearless forecasts.”
MLLG took early, decisive positions on controversial issues about which we have been proven correct. When we staked out our positions, they were contrary to conventional wisdom.
1. Man-made global warming: This was the mother of all fearless forecasts. We stated in 2007 that it was entirely false and a fraud. Just as we wrote, it was part of a natural cycle due to changes in the sun’s irradiance, i.e. sun spots. Today, sunspot activity is diminished and more and more scientists agree we are headed for global cooling.
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Each year we have taken a break from publishing during the summer months. This no longer is possible due to commitments to other electronic sites and blogs that prefer us to provide a steady stream of posts. We will however reduce our postings during July and August. Moreover, some of the mid-summer posts will be updates of earlier economic analyses.
The Inevitable Breakup of China
People overweight recent experience; it is human nature. They see things as they are and incorrectly conclude they always were this way and existing trends will continue and gain momentum. Things usually behave in the opposite pattern, i.e. they revert to the norm. The trick is to place events and trends into an accurate, balanced historical perspective.
Everyone today regards China as a rising, invincible superpower. We hear (correctly) that its GDP will surpass that of the USA in 5 years. We project China’s increasing power indefinitely into the future. My fearless forecast for China is far less sanguine.
“If there were enough cavemen extant, caveman GDP would surpass the USA’s; however, they still would be cavemen.”
Although China’s aggregate GDP may be on track to surpass ours by 2016, its estimated (IMF and World Bank) 2010 per capita GDP ranks 97th in the world – right alongside economic titans El Salvador, Fiji, Belize and Albania. Even Botswana’s GDP ranks 30 countries higher than China’s for crying out loud. People jump to conclusions and fail to make the distinction between aggregate and per capita data. If there were a large enough number of cavemen extant, the caveman GDP would surpass that of the USA; however, they still would be cavemen.
China’s demographics will soon cause a precipitous population decline. As a result of China’s one-child policy, cultural preferences for males, prenatal sex screening, aborting females and even female infanticide, there are 120 males for every 100 females – a surfeit of 100 million males. Once demographic trends are in place, they tend to continue and don’t change quickly.
On top of everything, the Chinese empire will break up in the same manner and for the same reasons the Soviet empire collapsed in 1989. China consists of a multitude of religions (including Muslim provinces), over 50 ethnic groups, minorities and races. It holds together diverse regions by force: Tibet, the Uighurs, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria and many others. History teaches all empires collapse; China will be no exception. If one looks closely enough, tiny cracks and fissures already are apparent.
China will be the first country to lose population before it becomes affluent. China will be both smaller and weaker in the future although you may not see this fully blossom for years. When it inevitably, inexorably does happen, please remember; you read it here first!
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