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Arnold’s Ramblings 3-29-2011

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Now that it is apparent that we are in Libya to stay for humanitarian reasons, I guess that means that the United States is going to protect civilians in every single country in which the head of that particular country is a “brutal dictator” and enforce no fly zones as well as regime change. The United States military is going to be pretty busy dealing with regime change around the world. In the Middle East alone, we have Syria, Iran, Bahrain, and on and on and on.

The demonstrations in London over the weekend – regarding the UK’s attempts at cutting over $160 billion of government expenditures – indicate these cuts clearly are not popular with some of the people. This number in the UK would be comparable to about $850 to $1 trillion in the United States. Here in the United States we can not even agree on $61 billion of government expenditure cuts; yet in the UK, apparently the government there is doing what we should be doing here: massive cuts of expenditures. When (note, I did not say if) the cuts are made, we will face similar reactions.

Today consumer confidence numbers were released and they were down significantly. While the media talks up the economy, there just doesn’t seem to be any major activity, the 3.1% 4th quarter GDP, notwithstanding.

•  The DJIA continues to look as though it will go higher, though there may be some small correction still to come.
•  Gold looks toppy here, but still should rise to over $1500 the ounce.
•  Interest rates are still at about 4.5% on the 30n year Treasury.
•  The dollar appears to be trying to make a bottom.
•  Oil is still holding $100 the barrel; pricing is primarily based upon the action in the Middle East.
•  Real estate pricing was down again today in the Case Shiller survey. I do not believe we are even close to a bottom yet.
•  The economy continues to struggle.

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