Last-Minute Spike Boosting Rick Scott, Poll Shows



By: Nancy Smith
Sunshine State News

As the last voters make their way to voting booths Tuesday, a Sunshine State News Poll of the previously tick-tight gubernatorial race shows Rick Scott leading Alex Sink in pull-away fashion, 49-45 among likely voters, and 50-44 among those with an “excellent” chance of voting.

The statewide poll of 1,526 likely voters was conducted Oct. 31 – Nov. 1.

Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service of Harrisburg, Pa., which conducts all Sunshine State News Polls, explained Tuesday morning that even though “Scott has to be considered the favorite,” Sink is “still in with a chance.”

gov-race-11-2“Among all those who voted early,” Lee said, “the candidates are virtually split (47-47). So, if Scott doesn’t lead in early votes, he’s still not in the clear.”

Getting away from the daily tracking surveys, which tend to be over-analyzed because on most days leads for both candidates usually fell within the margin of error, and looking instead at the long-term view from the first Labor Day poll to the current one, the aggregate of polls shows this: Scott has increased 7 points, from 42 percent, while Sink has increased only 1 percent, from 44 percent.

Even more telling is that Scott’s positive name ID has increased dramatically from the Labor Day poll, where he now has a net +1 positive rating (46 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable). That’s a 16-point jump in positive name ID from his inverted 46-30 ratio in September.

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