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Ted Cruz is fighting hard in Indiana, but it may not matter.
The Princeton Election Consortium, a group of Princeton University academics and other scholars who conduct polling data meta-analysis, has determined that, even if Donald Trump loses Indiana on Tuesday, there is still a 97 percent chance he will reach the required number of delegates to ensure a first ballot nomination.
Should Trump win in Indiana, and he is up by 6 percentage points there, the probability of getting to that 1,237 delegate magic number goes up to 98 percent.
According to the group, the 1 percent change is of little relevance because so many other states, like Washington and Oregon where Cruz is more competitive, allocate their delegates on a proportional basis. If Trump runs strong as expected in West Virginia, California, and New Jersey, he is likely to go over the top regardless of how Indiana turns out.
In California, the group predicts the front-runner to get 160 out of 172 delegates.
Princeton professor and author Sam Wang writes, “Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, may we have a moratorium on ‘brokered-convention’ articles please?”
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